Today’s Pontificate – Well… expect sheer pandemonium . The wounded animal that is Trump hasn’t even let loose yet. Essentially, expect the unexpected, hold your breath.. and pray.
Right about now there are readers of this saying, “Oh, surely you are exaggerating!” No.. surely I am not (..and don’t call me Shirley.). For me and others far more knowledgeable on these psyche things than me (like his psychologist/author niece, Mary Trump, and other professionals), I saw right away during the 2016 campaign… the Trumpian fear-and-grievance campaign… that Trump had significant behavioral and social dysfunctions and would make a poor President… and sure enough, he certainly did not disappoint in that area… and “poor” being an understatement. As I attempted to convey with my former blog, FindingPoliticalSanity.com for the last four years, his persona was going to be itself a clear and present danger to the country. He remains that threat to this day.. and to noon on January 20th, 2021.
Let’s put some historical context to this a bit with another psychotic in history. At the risk of comparing Trump to Hitler (ala Godwin’s Law)… Trump is certainly no “Hitler” in der Fuehrer’s racial decisions and murderous outcomes. This isn’t some “He’s just like Hitler!” defamation. I am comparing what I perceive as a similar psychosis that revealed itself in their respective final days in power. Toward the end of the Third Reich and the enemy was at the gates, Hitler executed many former loyalists who he suspected did him wrong. They both found value in getting their way using fear and intimidation.
As Trump has realized his election loss he has fired a number of former loyalists for the same reasons (and some pending as I write this). At the end, Hitler was moving pieces on a map of non-existent armies and barking orders for their strategic defense of Berlin. Trump has regarded his enemies being among those advancing election fraud and in an attempt to deny defeat sent out to the states an “army” of what was left in lawyers who would work for him to initiate court challenges… which ended up themselves as being ill-fated because of no evidence.
As with the final days in the bunker under the Chancellery, Hitler sequestered himself and what was left of his government. Staff and military officers responded to his tantrums by being stoic and non-responsive… fearing challenging the Fuehrer would mean death. Trump has been for weeks sequestered in the White House, refusing to see the press, expressing consistent anger at having lost the election and at people alleging loyalty to him failing to find election corruption. He’s also lashing out at delays in his being able to take credit on certain things, like a covid vaccine, or that Steele dossier investigation so far revealing nothing, before January 20th. The general mood in the White House is somber… and wary of Trump’s frustrations could mean an immediate career change.
The whole point of this comparison is not to suggest one bit that Trump’s performance as President was/is anything to the degree of Hitler’s crimes against humanity. But they do share a basic psychosis that reveals itself profoundly when being defeated and cornered. And let’s keep in mind here… Hitler certainly never gave a damn about the people of Germany. They were there to assure his personal victories whatever they were, make the sacrifices on the battlefields and in the streets, to keep him in power. Trump, in turn, cares only for himself and his own assurance of power… and fully expects his followers to make the sacrifices to trust him and keep him in power. A perfect example of this is the pandemic. No mention of it.. no acknowledgment of the struggle in this country trying to live with that fear. No concern for the collapsing healthcare system, the numerous deaths. He’s only concerned for his own election loss.. and trying to deny it. Also, he’s concerned with keeping his base interested enough to keep the money donations flowing into his unregulated “PAC” , presuming to pay his expenses of his own choosing. To Trump his “enemy at the gate” is the trumped up corruption of his enemies on the Left who are trying to remove him in an imaginary conspiracy coup.
Here’s the thing.. no one is disputing Trump’s power to do what he wills, but it’s far less about what he CAN do, and more about him having NO moral or practical sense of whether or not he SHOULD do it.
I closed out my FPS blog this last October after four years because with the election we were headed into a new phase, a new future, and any badgering against Trump has all been said. Whether he might win again or not, didn’t require my time anymore. My new blog here is far more moderated politically and exists simply for my own expression.
So, back to what my perceptions of what to expect in the remainder of his term. Quite obviously all this is speculation. I have no crystal ball. Given each day is a crisis of rapid events, some of these points will be very timely. I will break this down into areas.. one to list things that might happen before he leaves, and another list of what might happen after he leaves.
Before He Leaves – The “Scorched Earth” Campaign
Pardon me! A major one is the idea of pardons and pre-emptive pardons. Pardons are common with departing presidents and it would be no surprise if Trump pardons his past convicted buddies. This makes a rather moral mis-use of the power, albeit not illegal. The issue is in the pre-emptive pardon to himself, his family, and some of his buddies. Already there’s an investigation into a kind of pay-for-play, pardon-for-sale shenanigans going on. Trump pardoning himself is fully expected and no one knows where that will end up. Although this is not without its own risks as doing wide pre-emptive pardons would/could easily provide some focus on guilt, thus stimulating investigations. This leads us to the next point.
If it’s illegal, so what! Given Trump’s power to pardon, his perception of what he can still do as President and what may or my not be illegal will be blurred for him. Right about now his attitude is “F*** it.. I am still President and I will do what I want”. To his supporters… “Help me! I have been victimized by conspiratorial enemies on the Left!”. He’s going to get worse here.
Transition obstruction. Early on, his intentional obstruction to the transition was overt obstruction to the proper transfer of power. But he “buried” it with the idea that it was his right to challenge everything, hence transition formalities could be delayed. Fortunately someone got through to him and this has been rectified apparently. Expect more of these “little” obstruction tinkerings along the way.
Sabotaging Biden. I have always been concerned over Trump actually trying to sabotage certain aspects of international events. True to form, I immediately presumed it was the Israelis who assassinated that Iraqi nuke scientist.. with the idea that it would affect Biden’s ability to re-negotiate with the Iraqis the nuke agreement Trump pulled out of, due to Iraqi desire for retribution. Did Trump know about this? We have to presume that when Israel makes a strike anywhere that they give a heads up to our intel people. This is what allies do. Given that, Trump had to know… and likely agree to go ahead with the strike. Netanyahu likely created the opportunity because he was against the nuke agreement from the start. This whole thing stinks of sabotage, but because it fell in line with Trump policy, and he’s still President, no one cares. Expect more of this from Trump. The good news is that Trump has managed to alienate a fair number of Allies and many are just holding on until Biden takes over so there’s not going to be a lot of interest in Trump hank-panky.
After He’s Left The White House – Living in Exile
Spilling secrets or using confidential information. Because of his psychotic persona and his need for free money to pay his debts and fund his legal challenges he is going to still be a voice of chaotic conspiracies and his base feeds off that. As president he will have been privy to many confidential and classified bits of information that he could use, overtly or covertly or blunder out, to keep his relevancy alive… whether he decides to run in 2024 or not.
He will not run in 2024. I personally give his chances about 50/50 that he lives to 2024 in full health.. or at all. He’s got some serious conditions brewing given his diet and weight. I also do not think one bit that the Republican Party is going to want any part of him running by that time. Trump’s overall problem is that he is his own best salesman. No one else has ever done that to his satisfaction. But he still needs the major party politic to cover expenses and provide organization in a campaign. I firmly do not think the Republican Party wants him in spite of how his base electorate looks now (they have their own relevancy to improve first). Trump’s got a ton of work to do to keep relevant enough to his base for a 2024 campaign. The national priority is going to shift.. the pandemic, economic recovery, fixing a sick health system, etc. People are media-weary and tired of the unpredictable daily chaos. Adding to that.. there’s a lingering doubt of Biden’s health ability to keep functioning through his entire term. A Harris takeover is quite possible.. and I would also give that a 50/50. Domestic social and political events, and maybe some international events, will take attention away from Trump. This does NOT mean Trump won’t be a domestic pain in the ass… especially at the beginning through 2021. I honestly think he would have problems trying to get anyone to work for him on any campaign given his erratic behavior, propensity to fire people on impulse, and tantrums.
Speaking of the media… once Biden takes over there will be a growing news vacuum that has been filled previously by four years of Trump chaos. I think initially the major outlets will passively toy with the idea of not reporting on Trump given he’s dissed the media so much over the last four years, in some sort of retribution. But in the longer run viewership will tank for the major media outlets… as will revenue as public attention shifts elsewhere. The vaccines will take hold and by 2022 even that news will taper off. It could be possible that the media itself will look to Trump later on to help bolster ratings, especially if there’s a Trump trial to capture interest in him. I would guess the media would welcome an “OJ Simpson”-like media event. That in turn will help to keep Trump relevant in front of a portion of the electorate… for a while. By comparison, reporting on the Biden administration will be boring.. and welcome in general by the public. The public will divert attention elsewhere… and not to Trump. Conservative media will likely keep Trump alive in their reporting, if not for anything else other than to try and keep the revenue stream alive.
Trump has/will have a lot of state legal challenges. His pardons and self-pardons will not save him from the various state court civil and criminal litigation. Some will likely last years tying up expenses from his donations. Politically, if he gets convicted of one of these charges… or the corporation does… him and/or his family will have that taint on their record to add to the impeachment embarrassment. If him or any members of his family have to serve time… he can forget anything.
Ivanka 2022/2024 somewhere? Not a chance. But that’s what I said about her daddy in 2016.
Given all that above… it makes one wonder what the breaking point is of Congressional GOP members, and Republicans in general to the tune of not only 74 million votes…. but even knowing Trump lost the election, still giving him money to bail his ass out of his own troubles. Amazing.
So.. to summarize a bit… HE isn’t over, and IT ain’t over until it’s over. Keep your seat belts fastened until Trump’s Wild Ride is over.
“Everything came to head on Sunday, April 22nd. During a three-hour military conference in the Führerbunker, Hitler let loose a shrieking denunciation of the German Army and the “universal treason, corruption, lies and failures” of all those who had let him down.” “The war is lost!” shouted the exasperated Führer. — The History Place